← Eredivisie 2017-18 · Sun, Feb 25, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Paulus van Boekel, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AFC Ajax win | 86% | 83% | 1.13 | fair |
| Draw | 10% | 11% | 9.50 | value: +9% |
| ADO Den Haag win | 4% | 6% | 25.50 | value: +49% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 37' | 🟨 | Nicolás Tagliafico · AFC Ajax |
| 38' | 🟨 | André Onana · AFC Ajax |
| 38' | 🟨 | Trevor David · ADO Den Haag |
| 57' | 🟨 | Tom Beugelsdijk · ADO Den Haag |
| 82' | 🟨 | Carel Eiting · AFC Ajax |
| 87' | 🟨 | Björn Johnsen · ADO Den Haag |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 28 | Shots | 4 |
| 9 | On target | 1 |
| 5 | Corners | 1 |
| 11 | Fouls | 9 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | AFC Ajax | ADO Den Haag |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.34 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.31 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.46 | 0.70 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.40 |
| venue | Johan Cruijff Arena |
| coach days | 55.00 | 1485.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.07 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 5.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 6.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.74 | 2.41 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.72 | 0.55 |
| elo | 1824.52 | 1516.11 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 7.18 | 15.52 |
| eye test v1 | 1.64 | 0.05 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.52 | 0.02 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.30 | 57.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 13.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.16 | 1.35 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.60 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.90 | 0.10 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.73 | 0.62 |
| league points | 57.00 | 35.00 |
| league rank | 2.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 83.40 | 67.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 60.40 | 46.60 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 8.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.18 | 0.34 |
| season ppg | 2.38 | 1.46 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 14.20 | 3.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 23.40 | 15.40 |
| skill v1 | 1.43 | -1.18 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 8.10 | 5.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 7.20 | 4.80 |
| squad age | 22.03 | — |
| state index | 1.49 | 0.10 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.23 | -1.15 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.38 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.34 | 0.34 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.31 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 3.00 | 1.00 |