← Eredivisie 2017-18 · Sat, Feb 24, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Bas Nijhuis, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Heracles win | 40% | 38% | 2.42 | fair |
| PEC Zwolle win | 34% | 37% | 2.83 | value: +6% |
| Draw | 26% | 25% | 3.79 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 42' | ⚽ | Kristoffer Peterson · Heracles |
| 50' | ⚽ | Piotr Parzyszek · PEC Zwolle |
| 62' | ⚽ | Vincent Vermeij · Heracles |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 19 | Shots | 20 |
| 6 | On target | 9 |
| 8 | Corners | 13 |
| 6 | Fouls | 4 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Heracles | PEC Zwolle |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.34 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.34 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.53 | 0.43 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.40 |
| venue | Polman Stadion |
| coach days | 1303.00 | 268.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.07 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 3.00 | -0.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 4.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 3.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.58 | 2.67 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.14 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.38 |
| elo | 1468.27 | 1538.30 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -15.42 | -18.54 |
| eye test v1 | 0.11 | 0.01 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.15 | -0.18 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 50.60 | 65.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | -1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 2.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.03 | 1.14 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.62 | 0.71 |
| league points | 27.00 | 39.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 76.00 | 78.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 51.00 | 50.00 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.21 | 0.30 |
| season ppg | 1.13 | 1.63 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.80 | -7.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.40 | 10.20 |
| skill v1 | 0.02 | 0.16 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 5.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.10 | 5.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 4.20 |
| state index | -0.44 | -0.54 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.15 | -0.06 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.20 |