← Eredivisie 2017-18 · Sat, Feb 24, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Serdar Gozubuyuk, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AZ win | 74% | 82% | 1.31 | value: +8% |
| Draw | 15% | 12% | 6.35 | fair |
| Sparta Rotterdam win | 10% | 6% | 9.33 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 19' | ⚽ | Jeff Chabot · Sparta Rotterdam |
| 44' | ⚽ | Wout Weghorst · AZ |
| 86' | ⚽ | Oussama Idrissi · AZ |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 33 | Shots | 4 |
| 16 | On target | 2 |
| 14 | Corners | 2 |
| 6 | Fouls | 10 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | AZ | Sparta Rotterdam |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.42 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.44 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.31 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.57 | 0.68 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.20 |
| venue | AFAS Stadion |
| coach days |
| 1272.00 |
| 54.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.15 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 3.40 | -2.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 7.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 4.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.41 | 3.40 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.04 | 0.07 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.63 | 0.41 |
| elo | 1649.10 | 1354.22 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 17.32 | 6.33 |
| eye test v1 | 1.59 | -0.35 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.00 | -0.48 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 62.40 | 63.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 11.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.60 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.55 | 0.79 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.40 | 0.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.78 | 0.73 |
| league points | 50.00 | 15.00 |
| league rank | 3.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 85.80 | 73.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 66.40 | 43.80 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.23 | 0.20 |
| season ppg | 2.08 | 0.63 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 6.80 | -5.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 18.20 | 10.80 |
| skill v1 | 2.09 | -0.70 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 5.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 6.90 | 4.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 8.00 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 7.60 | 3.80 |
| state index | 0.89 | -0.84 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.07 | -0.61 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.20 |