← Eredivisie 2017-18 · Fri, Feb 23, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Dennis Higler, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Groningen win | 47% | 45% | 2.06 | fair |
| NAC Breda win | 28% | 28% | 3.51 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 26% | 3.78 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 66' | ⚽ (og) | Pablo Marí · FC Groningen |
| 80' | 🟨 | Rai Vloet · NAC Breda |
| 86' | ⚽ | Mitchell Te Vrede · NAC Breda |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 16 | Shots | 15 |
| 5 | On target | 7 |
| 6 | Corners | 7 |
| 17 | Fouls | 4 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Groningen | NAC Breda |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.27 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.28 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.61 | 0.70 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.60 |
| venue | Hitachi Capital Mobility Stadion |
| coach days | 571.00 | 876.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.80 | -1.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 7.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 5.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.79 | 3.06 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.47 |
| elo | 1511.05 | 1416.79 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -22.27 | 2.08 |
| eye test v1 | -0.64 | 0.06 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.31 | 0.46 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 60.00 | 64.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.51 | 1.89 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.77 | 0.73 |
| league points | 24.00 | 20.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 6.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 71.60 | 79.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 45.80 | 48.40 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.20 | 0.21 |
| season ppg | 1.00 | 0.83 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -6.80 | -2.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.80 | 14.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.80 | 0.23 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 6.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.50 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 4.20 |
| state index | -0.73 | -0.52 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.27 | -0.34 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.20 | 0.35 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.29 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.40 |