← Eredivisie 2017-18 · Sun, Feb 18, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Kevin Blom, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AFC Ajax win | 68% | 66% | 1.43 | fair |
| Draw | 18% | 21% | 5.29 | value: +9% |
| PEC Zwolle win | 14% | 13% | 7.08 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 54' | ⚽ | Klaas-Jan Huntelaar · AFC Ajax |
| 68' | 🟨 | Nicolás Tagliafico · AFC Ajax |
| 82' | 🟨 | Philippe Sandler · PEC Zwolle |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 5 | Shots | 25 |
| 2 | On target | 7 |
| 3 | Corners | 4 |
| 9 | Fouls | 15 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | PEC Zwolle | AFC Ajax |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.37 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.32 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.46 | 0.44 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.40 |
| venue | Mac3Park Stadion |
| coach days |
| 262.00 |
| 48.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 5.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 0.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 6.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.71 | 3.72 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.07 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.48 | 0.72 |
| elo | 1542.75 | 1820.07 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -9.12 | 11.70 |
| eye test v1 | 0.26 | 1.53 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.05 | -0.42 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 69.50 | 56.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 13.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | 1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.06 | 1.08 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 1.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.45 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.70 | 0.72 |
| league points | 39.00 | 54.00 |
| league rank | 6.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 79.80 | 84.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 50.80 | 61.60 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.30 | 0.16 |
| season ppg | 1.70 | 2.35 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | 13.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.60 | 22.20 |
| skill v1 | 0.40 | 1.63 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.30 | 8.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.33 | 7.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 7.00 |
| squad age | — | 22.03 |
| state index | -0.15 | 1.43 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.05 | 0.09 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.37 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.37 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.36 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.20 |