β Eredivisie 2017-18 Β· Sun, Feb 18, 03:00 PM UTC Β· ref: Paulus van Boekel, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Twente '65 win | 43% | 36% | 2.26 | fair |
| Sparta Rotterdam win | 31% | 37% | 3.09 | value: +15% |
| Draw | 26% | 27% | 3.80 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 28' | π¨ | Kenneth Dougall Β· Sparta Rotterdam |
| 30' | π¨ | Sander Fischer Β· Sparta Rotterdam |
| 62' | β½ | Fred Friday Β· Sparta Rotterdam |
| 85' | β½ | Haris VuΔkiΔ Β· FC Twente '65 |
from ESPN event data Β· goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 25 | Shots | 2 |
| 8 | On target | 1 |
| 11 | Corners | 1 |
| 9 | Fouls | 14 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in β computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Twente '65 | Sparta Rotterdam |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | β |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.32 | β |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.29 | β |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.39 | β |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 1.60 |
| venue | De Grolsch Veste |
| coach days |
| 140.00 |
| 48.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.03 | 0.07 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | 0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 5.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 6.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.74 | 3.00 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.15 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.45 | 0.53 |
| elo | 1437.07 | 1350.23 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -25.29 | -6.50 |
| eye test v1 | -0.16 | 0.38 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.10 | -0.11 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 75.50 | 63.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.05 | 0.82 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.20 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.76 | 0.70 |
| league points | 16.00 | 14.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 7.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.00 | 75.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 45.60 | 44.80 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 8.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.20 | 0.21 |
| season ppg | 0.70 | 0.61 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.80 | 1.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.40 | 13.60 |
| skill v1 | -0.15 | -0.51 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.20 | 4.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 4.60 |
| state index | -1.06 | -0.84 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.51 | -0.98 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.34 | 0.32 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.32 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.00 |