← Eredivisie 2017-18 · Sun, Feb 18, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Allard Lindhout, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Utrecht win | 55% | 51% | 1.76 | fair |
| Draw | 25% | 28% | 3.85 | value: +7% |
| Roda JC win | 20% | 21% | 4.91 | value: +5% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 13' | ⚽ | Sander van de Streek · FC Utrecht |
| 57' | ⚽ | Mark van der Maarel · FC Utrecht |
| 63' | ⚽ | Sander van de Streek · FC Utrecht |
| 67' | 🟨 | Henk Dijkhuizen · Roda JC |
| 83' | ⚽ | Jorn Vancamp · Roda JC |
| 90' | ⚽ | Zakaria Labyad · FC Utrecht |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 13 | Shots | 17 |
| 2 | On target | 11 |
| 3 | Corners | 10 |
| 7 | Fouls | 10 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Roda JC | FC Utrecht |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.38 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.55 | 0.61 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.80 |
| venue | Parkstad Limburg |
| coach days |
| 262.00 |
| 47.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 5.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 6.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.92 | 3.03 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.06 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.48 | 0.47 |
| elo | 1396.94 | 1621.10 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 19.91 | 11.72 |
| eye test v1 | -0.07 | 0.05 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.28 | -0.14 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.50 | 58.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.71 | 0.57 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.59 | 0.73 |
| league points | 17.00 | 38.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since blank | 6.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 15.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 71.60 | 77.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 39.20 | 52.80 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 8.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.27 | 0.24 |
| season ppg | 0.74 | 1.65 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | -2.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.60 | 12.40 |
| skill v1 | -1.25 | 0.24 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.40 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.40 |
| state index | -0.46 | 0.40 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.63 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.35 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.23 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.60 |