← Eredivisie 2017-18 · Sun, Feb 18, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Ed Peter Janssen, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feyenoord Rotterdam win | 83% | 88% | 1.17 | fair |
| Draw | 11% | 9% | 8.72 | fair |
| Heracles win | 6% | 3% | 16.06 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 17' | 🟨 | Roland Baas · Heracles |
| 22' | 🟨 | Kevin Diks · Feyenoord Rotterdam |
| 50' | 🟨 | Bart Nieuwkoop · Feyenoord Rotterdam |
| 59' | ⚽ | Robin van Persie · Feyenoord Rotterdam |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 15 | Shots | 16 |
| 7 | On target | 6 |
| 2 | Corners | 6 |
| 13 | Fouls | 12 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Feyenoord Rotterdam | Heracles |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.45 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.43 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.32 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.48 | 0.54 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.80 |
| venue | De Kuip |
| coach days |
| 1024.00 |
| 1297.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 0.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 4.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 5.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.57 | 3.69 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.53 | 0.40 |
| elo | 1689.37 | 1471.63 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -22.10 | -14.90 |
| eye test v1 | 0.37 | 0.06 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.33 | -0.21 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.00 | 52.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 2.30 | 0.95 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.20 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.90 | 0.10 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.74 | 0.59 |
| league points | 39.00 | 27.00 |
| league rank | 4.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 79.80 | 77.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 59.00 | 53.20 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 8.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.27 | 0.21 |
| season ppg | 1.70 | 1.17 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 2.00 | -7.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.20 | 13.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.96 | 0.35 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 5.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 6.50 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.67 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.40 |
| state index | 0.51 | -0.62 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.72 | 0.16 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 0.40 |