← Eredivisie 2017-18 · Sat, Feb 17, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Jeroen Manschot, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vitesse win | 69% | 71% | 1.41 | fair |
| Draw | 20% | 20% | 4.91 | fair |
| SBV Excelsior win | 12% | 8% | 8.38 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 2' | ⚽ | Luc Castaignos · Vitesse |
| 44' | ⚽ | Hicham Faik · SBV Excelsior |
| 66' | ⚽ | Mike van Duinen · SBV Excelsior |
| 75' | 🟨 | Mike van Duinen · SBV Excelsior |
| 81' | 🟨 | Thomas Oude Kotte · Vitesse |
| 84' | 🟨 | Thulani Serero · Vitesse |
| 89' | 🟨 | Maikel Van der Werff · Vitesse |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 11 | Shots | 10 |
| 5 | On target | 4 |
| 5 | Corners | 1 |
| 18 | Fouls | 11 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Vitesse | SBV Excelsior |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.34 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.79 | 0.48 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.40 |
| venue | GelreDome |
| coach days | 626.00 | 565.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.14 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 3.40 | -5.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 10.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 4.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.53 | 2.25 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.65 | 0.41 |
| elo | 1625.51 | 1471.15 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 23.34 | -2.95 |
| eye test v1 | 0.17 | -0.52 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.18 | -0.00 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 61.80 | 64.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.84 | 0.99 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.79 | 0.65 |
| league points | 37.00 | 26.00 |
| league rank | 7.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 74.40 | 74.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 54.00 | 44.40 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.28 | 0.18 |
| season ppg | 1.61 | 1.13 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 7.00 | -5.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 15.20 | 10.60 |
| skill v1 | 0.05 | -0.58 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.20 | 3.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 3.40 |
| squad age | 25.84 | 27.24 |
| state index | 0.80 | -0.55 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.20 | -0.29 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.23 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.60 |