← Eredivisie 2017-18 · Sat, Feb 17, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Jochem Kamphuis, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AZ win | 60% | 63% | 1.61 | fair |
| Draw | 21% | 21% | 4.56 | fair |
| NAC Breda win | 18% | 16% | 5.30 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 32' | ⚽ | Alireza Jahanbakhsh · AZ |
| 47' | ⚽ | Guus Til · AZ |
| 51' | 🟨 | Giovanni Korte · NAC Breda |
| 52' | ⚽ | Mats Seuntjens · AZ |
| 56' | 🟨 | Bart Meijers · NAC Breda |
| 85' | ⚽ | Umar Sadiq · NAC Breda |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 14 | Shots | 18 |
| 4 | On target | 11 |
| 2 | Corners | 4 |
| 9 | Fouls | 11 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | NAC Breda | AZ |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.40 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.75 | 0.61 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.40 |
| venue | Rat Verlegh Stadion |
| coach days | 870.00 | 1265.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.20 | 2.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.80 | 3.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 6.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.95 | 3.41 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.05 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.45 | 0.62 |
| elo | 1425.52 | 1640.37 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 5.83 | 9.74 |
| eye test v1 | -0.02 | 1.06 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.18 | -0.21 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 67.40 | 65.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.96 | 1.52 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 1.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.73 | 0.82 |
| league points | 20.00 | 47.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 79.40 | 83.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 49.80 | 63.80 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.22 | 0.25 |
| season ppg | 0.87 | 2.04 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.40 | 6.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.00 | 16.80 |
| skill v1 | 0.29 | 1.62 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.00 | 6.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 6.40 |
| state index | -0.22 | 0.79 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.03 | 0.93 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.20 |