← Eredivisie 2017-18 · Sat, Feb 17, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Joey Kooij, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ADO Den Haag win | 48% | 46% | 2.04 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 27% | 3.59 | fair |
| Willem II Tilburg win | 25% | 27% | 3.81 | value: +3% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 30' | 🟨 | Pedro Chirivella · Willem II Tilburg |
| 36' | 🟨 | Fernando Lewis · Willem II Tilburg |
| 40' | ⚽ | Fran Sol · Willem II Tilburg |
| 69' | ⚽ | Björn Johnsen · ADO Den Haag |
| 76' | 🟨 | Darryl Lachman · Willem II Tilburg |
| 90' | ⚽ (pen) | Abdenasser El Khayati · ADO Den Haag |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 27 | Shots | 4 |
| 9 | On target | 1 |
| 7 | Corners | 4 |
| 8 | Fouls | 13 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | ADO Den Haag | Willem II Tilburg |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.38 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.75 | 0.56 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 |
| venue | Cars Jeans Stadion |
| 2.00 |
| coach days | 1477.00 | 626.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.06 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -2.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 6.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 4.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.36 | 2.41 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.07 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.48 |
| elo | 1527.24 | 1452.93 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 5.78 | -11.77 |
| eye test v1 | -0.64 | -0.01 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.06 | -0.13 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.00 | 64.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.43 | 1.16 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.90 | 0.10 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.62 | 0.74 |
| league points | 32.00 | 20.00 |
| league rank | 8.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 66.40 | 73.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 44.60 | 49.80 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.32 | 0.30 |
| season ppg | 1.39 | 0.87 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.60 | -1.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.40 | 12.40 |
| skill v1 | -1.42 | -0.30 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 5.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.70 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 4.40 |
| squad age | 26.60 | 25.88 |
| state index | 0.01 | -0.46 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.92 | -0.17 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.40 |