← Eredivisie 2017-18 · Sun, Feb 11, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Dennis Higler, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feyenoord Rotterdam win | 45% | 45% | 2.17 | fair |
| Vitesse win | 28% | 27% | 3.51 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 28% | 3.52 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 13' | 🟨 | Thomas Bruns · Vitesse |
| 21' | ⚽ | Tonny Vilhena · Feyenoord Rotterdam |
| 43' | ⚽ | Guram Kashia · Vitesse |
| 65' | 🟥 | Bilal Başaçıkoğlu · Feyenoord Rotterdam |
| 66' | ⚽ | Bryan Linssen · Vitesse |
| 81' | 🟥 | Tyrell Malacia · Feyenoord Rotterdam |
| 84' | 🟨 | Thomas Buitink · Vitesse |
| 86' | ⚽ | Bryan Linssen · Vitesse |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 20 | Shots | 5 |
| 7 | On target | 3 |
| 8 | Corners | 1 |
| 8 | Fouls | 11 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 2 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Vitesse | Feyenoord Rotterdam |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.45 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.38 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.76 | 0.46 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.60 |
| venue | GelreDome |
| 2.20 |
| coach days | 620.00 | 1017.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 5.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.08 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.20 | -0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 5.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 5.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.53 | 3.21 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.07 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.56 | 0.51 |
| elo | 1584.92 | 1707.03 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 12.31 | -13.42 |
| eye test v1 | -0.03 | 0.29 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.27 | -0.32 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 60.50 | 56.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.74 | 2.26 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 1.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.80 | 0.78 |
| league points | 34.00 | 39.00 |
| league rank | 7.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 74.60 | 80.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 53.00 | 57.60 |
| rest days | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.24 | 0.28 |
| season ppg | 1.55 | 1.77 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.20 | 13.80 |
| skill v1 | 0.01 | 0.88 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.90 | 7.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 6.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.80 |
| state index | 0.52 | 0.44 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.02 | 0.70 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.23 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.40 |