← Eredivisie 2017-18 · Sun, Feb 11, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Danny Desmond Makkelie, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SBV Excelsior win | 39% | 40% | 2.48 | fair |
| NAC Breda win | 33% | 30% | 2.93 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 30% | 3.52 | value: +5% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 26' | 🟨 | Manu García · NAC Breda |
| 70' | 🟨 | Pablo Marí · NAC Breda |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 13 | Shots | 9 |
| 4 | On target | 1 |
| 6 | Corners | 11 |
| 15 | Fouls | 9 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | SBV Excelsior | NAC Breda |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.42 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.39 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.56 | 0.69 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 2.40 |
| coach days | 559.00 | 864.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) |
| venue | Stadion Woudestein |
| -4.60 |
| -3.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 8.80 | 7.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.25 | 1.94 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.08 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.46 |
| elo | 1456.65 | 1422.88 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -2.08 | 25.16 |
| eye test v1 | -0.48 | 0.44 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.05 | 0.23 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 66.30 | 65.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.92 | 1.90 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.64 | 0.67 |
| league points | 25.00 | 19.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 71.00 | 78.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 42.00 | 48.20 |
| rest days | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.18 | 0.22 |
| season ppg | 1.14 | 0.86 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -6.80 | -3.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.60 | 13.80 |
| skill v1 | -1.12 | 0.11 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 5.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.90 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 5.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 5.20 |
| state index | -0.52 | -0.19 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.91 | -0.26 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.28 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.20 |