← Eredivisie 2017-18 · Sun, Feb 11, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Serdar Gozubuyuk, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AFC Ajax win | 85% | 88% | 1.14 | fair |
| Draw | 10% | 9% | 9.70 | fair |
| FC Twente '65 win | 5% | 3% | 21.50 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 3' | ⚽ | Justin Kluivert · AFC Ajax |
| 34' | 🟨 | Matthijs de Ligt · AFC Ajax |
| 45' | 🟨 | Hidde ter Avest · FC Twente '65 |
| 60' | 🟨 | Hakim Ziyech · AFC Ajax |
| 66' | ⚽ | Adnane Tighadouini · FC Twente '65 |
| 71' | ⚽ (pen) | Lasse Schöne · AFC Ajax |
| 75' | 🟨 | Peet Bijen · FC Twente '65 |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 19 | Shots | 15 |
| 9 | On target | 6 |
| 2 | Corners | 1 |
| 11 | Fouls | 14 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | AFC Ajax | FC Twente '65 |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.31 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.51 | 0.49 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 3.00 |
| venue | Johan Cruijff Arena |
| coach days | 41.00 | 133.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.02 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 7.20 | -0.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 5.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 8.60 | 4.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.26 | 2.42 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.76 | 0.47 |
| elo | 1818.60 | 1438.54 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 12.74 | -22.16 |
| eye test v1 | 1.72 | -0.51 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.64 | 0.02 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.70 | 72.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 13.00 | 2.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.60 | -1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 0.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.32 | 1.10 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.90 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.74 | 0.76 |
| league points | 51.00 | 16.00 |
| league rank | 2.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 6.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 84.80 | 76.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 63.20 | 44.20 |
| rest days | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.17 | 0.21 |
| season ppg | 2.32 | 0.73 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 16.20 | -1.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 24.00 | 13.20 |
| skill v1 | 1.76 | -0.45 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 5.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 8.70 | 3.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.67 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 7.40 | 3.20 |
| squad age | 22.21 | — |
| state index | 1.61 | -0.85 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.05 | -0.39 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.38 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.40 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 3.00 | 1.00 |