← Eredivisie 2017-18 · Sat, Feb 10, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Reinold Wiedemeijer, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Utrecht win | 55% | 53% | 1.75 | fair |
| Draw | 24% | 21% | 3.99 | fair |
| PEC Zwolle win | 20% | 26% | 4.77 | value: +24% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 12' | 🟨 | Rico Strieder · FC Utrecht |
| 17' | ⚽ | Gyrano Kerk · FC Utrecht |
| 22' | ⚽ | Zakaria Labyad · FC Utrecht |
| 27' | 🟨 | Wouter Marinus · PEC Zwolle |
| 37' | 🟨 | Zakaria Labyad · FC Utrecht |
| 89' | 🟨 | Younes Namli · PEC Zwolle |
| 90' | ⚽ (pen) | Mustafa Saymak · PEC Zwolle |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 14 | Shots | 15 |
| 7 | On target | 3 |
| 4 | Corners | 4 |
| 11 | Fouls | 6 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Utrecht | PEC Zwolle |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.42 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.44 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.55 | 0.44 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.60 |
| venue | Stadion Galgenwaard |
| coach days | 39.00 | 254.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.07 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.80 | -0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 4.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.06 | 2.81 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.16 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.47 | 0.46 |
| elo | 1614.55 | 1549.29 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 4.04 | -22.83 |
| eye test v1 | -0.33 | 0.69 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.38 | -0.05 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.50 | 71.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.79 | 1.07 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.76 | 0.71 |
| league points | 35.00 | 39.00 |
| league rank | 6.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 75.80 | 78.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 52.60 | 51.20 |
| rest days | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.23 | 0.30 |
| season ppg | 1.59 | 1.77 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.00 | -2.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.60 | 11.40 |
| skill v1 | 0.10 | 0.32 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 5.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.50 | 5.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 5.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 5.80 |
| state index | 0.27 | -0.34 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.31 | -0.03 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.20 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.80 |