← Eredivisie 2017-18 · Sat, Feb 10, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Ed Peter Janssen, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SC Heerenveen win | 71% | 73% | 1.37 | fair |
| Draw | 18% | 17% | 5.26 | fair |
| Roda JC win | 11% | 10% | 9.19 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 35' | ⚽ | Fred Ngombo · Roda JC |
| 57' | 🟨 | Reza Ghoochannejhad · SC Heerenveen |
| 64' | 🟨 | Mohamed El Makrini · Roda JC |
| 74' | ⚽ | Arbër Zeneli · SC Heerenveen |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 20 | Shots | 6 |
| 4 | On target | 2 |
| 10 | Corners | 2 |
| 13 | Fouls | 12 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | SC Heerenveen | Roda JC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.42 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.50 | 0.25 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.46 | 0.32 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.63 | 0.56 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.00 |
| venue | Abe Lenstra Stadion |
| coach days | 619.00 | 254.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 5.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.07 | 2.92 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.17 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.45 | 0.50 |
| elo | 1521.39 | 1409.65 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 0.37 | 12.16 |
| eye test v1 | 0.41 | 0.24 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.03 | 0.15 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 67.80 | 57.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.48 | 0.71 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.57 | 0.55 |
| league points | 30.00 | 16.00 |
| league rank | 10.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since blank | 11.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 77.80 | 76.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 51.40 | 41.20 |
| rest days | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.14 | 0.29 |
| season ppg | 1.36 | 0.73 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.40 | -0.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.40 | 14.20 |
| skill v1 | 0.23 | -0.64 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.40 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.33 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 4.40 |
| squad age | 24.84 | 24.99 |
| state index | -0.07 | -0.68 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.20 | -1.34 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.37 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.35 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.20 |