← Eredivisie 2017-18 · Thu, Feb 8, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Serdar Gozubuyuk, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feyenoord Rotterdam win | 75% | 75% | 1.25 | fair |
| Draw | 16% | 16% | 6.00 | fair |
| FC Groningen win | 9% | 9% | 12.00 | value: +9% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 53' | ⚽ | Jens Toornstra · Feyenoord Rotterdam |
| 72' | ⚽ | Jeremiah St. Juste · Feyenoord Rotterdam |
| 78' | ⚽ | Robin van Persie · Feyenoord Rotterdam |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 24 | Shots | 6 |
| 9 | On target | 1 |
| 10 | Corners | 2 |
| 8 | Fouls | 13 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Feyenoord Rotterdam | FC Groningen |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.45 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.37 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.66 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.00 |
| venue | De Kuip |
| coach days |
| 1014.00 |
| 556.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | -2.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 6.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.72 | 2.75 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.49 | 0.47 |
| elo | 1700.00 | 1520.08 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -16.98 | -22.29 |
| eye test v1 | 0.26 | 0.48 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.79 | 0.09 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 61.00 | 60.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 2.28 | 1.63 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.20 | 1.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.75 | 0.74 |
| league points | 36.00 | 22.00 |
| league rank | 5.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 79.80 | 73.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 55.80 | 50.60 |
| rest days | 4.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.30 | 0.21 |
| season ppg | 1.71 | 1.05 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -1.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.60 | 13.60 |
| skill v1 | 0.74 | -0.31 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 6.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 6.90 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 5.80 |
| state index | 0.49 | -0.34 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.66 | -0.43 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.28 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.00 |