← Eredivisie 2017-18 · Wed, Feb 7, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Dennis Higler, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Utrecht win | 58% | 64% | 1.67 | value: +6% |
| Draw | 23% | 22% | 4.20 | fair |
| Sparta Rotterdam win | 19% | 14% | 5.20 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 26' | 🟨 | Bart Vriends · Sparta Rotterdam |
| 85' | ⚽ | Lukas Görtler · FC Utrecht |
| 89' | 🟨 | Cyriel Dessers · FC Utrecht |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 16 | Shots | 10 |
| 3 | On target | 3 |
| 10 | Corners | 2 |
| 19 | Fouls | 15 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Utrecht | Sparta Rotterdam |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.41 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.34 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.54 | 0.63 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 |
| venue | Stadion Galgenwaard |
| 1.80 |
| coach days | 36.00 | 37.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.05 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 2.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 4.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 6.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.91 | 2.77 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.17 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.46 | 0.58 |
| elo | 1611.78 | 1354.33 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -20.70 | -16.79 |
| eye test v1 | -0.14 | 0.51 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.30 | 0.02 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.70 | 62.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.97 | 0.88 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.74 | 0.70 |
| league points | 32.00 | 14.00 |
| league rank | 7.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 6.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 74.00 | 74.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 50.00 | 47.80 |
| rest days | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.23 | 0.21 |
| season ppg | 1.52 | 0.67 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.60 | 3.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.60 | 15.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.26 | -0.37 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 6.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.90 | 4.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 5.40 |
| state index | -0.26 | -0.83 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.02 | -0.88 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.33 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.20 |