← Eredivisie 2017-18 · Wed, Feb 7, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Siemen Mulder, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AZ win | 53% | 49% | 1.83 | fair |
| Draw | 24% | 23% | 4.06 | fair |
| FC Twente '65 win | 23% | 28% | 4.18 | value: +17% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 9' | 🟨 | Haris Vučkić · FC Twente '65 |
| 10' | ⚽ (pen) | Alireza Jahanbakhsh · AZ |
| 60' | 🟨 | Cristian Cuevas · FC Twente '65 |
| 60' | 🟨 | Alireza Jahanbakhsh · AZ |
| 64' | 🟨 | Jonas Svensson · AZ |
| 73' | 🟨 | Cristian Cuevas · FC Twente '65 |
| 73' | 🟥 | Cristian Cuevas · FC Twente '65 |
| 82' | 🟨 | Thomas Lam · FC Twente '65 |
| 89' | ⚽ | Wout Weghorst · AZ |
| 90' | ⚽ | Wout Weghorst · AZ |
| 90' | ⚽ | Alireza Jahanbakhsh · AZ |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 17 | Shots | 18 |
| 6 | On target | 8 |
| 3 | Corners | 4 |
| 11 | Fouls | 13 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Twente '65 | AZ |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.43 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.42 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.51 | 0.65 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.80 |
| venue | De Grolsch Veste |
| coach days | 129.00 | 1255.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.40 | 1.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.20 | 4.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 5.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.31 | 3.16 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.08 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.52 |
| elo | 1450.89 | 1634.49 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -8.17 | 4.78 |
| eye test v1 | -0.62 | 0.69 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.42 | -0.07 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 72.50 | 70.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.10 | 1.25 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 1.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.84 | 0.82 |
| league points | 16.00 | 43.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 5.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 75.60 | 80.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 44.20 | 58.80 |
| rest days | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.21 | 0.21 |
| season ppg | 0.76 | 2.05 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.60 | 0.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.00 | 13.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.49 | 0.98 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.80 | 5.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.33 | 6.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 5.80 |
| state index | -0.67 | 0.54 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.52 | 0.71 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.23 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.40 | 2.20 |