← Eredivisie 2017-18 · Wed, Feb 7, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Bas Nijhuis, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AFC Ajax win | 81% | 77% | 1.19 | fair |
| Draw | 13% | 15% | 7.73 | value: +16% |
| Roda JC win | 6% | 8% | 15.39 | value: +26% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 2' | ⚽ | Simon Gustafsson · Roda JC |
| 11' | ⚽ | Donny van de Beek · AFC Ajax |
| 24' | ⚽ | Hakim Ziyech · AFC Ajax |
| 50' | 🟨 | Joël Veltman · AFC Ajax |
| 74' | ⚽ | Klaas-Jan Huntelaar · AFC Ajax |
| 80' | 🟨 | Nicolás Tagliafico · AFC Ajax |
| 80' | ⚽ | Jorn Vancamp · Roda JC |
| 82' | ⚽ | Klaas-Jan Huntelaar · AFC Ajax |
| 88' | 🟨 | Simon Gustafsson · Roda JC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 11 | Shots | 18 |
| 4 | On target | 5 |
| 1 | Corners | 5 |
| 9 | Fouls | 9 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Roda JC | AFC Ajax |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.34 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.53 | 0.53 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.20 |
| venue | Parkstad Limburg |
| coach days | 251.00 | 37.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.08 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 5.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 2.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 7.00 | 8.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.92 | 3.06 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.06 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.49 | 0.76 |
| elo | 1395.73 | 1815.23 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 3.65 | 16.33 |
| eye test v1 | -0.19 | 2.02 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.44 | -0.54 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 63.70 | 55.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 13.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | 1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.82 | 2.10 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 2.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.59 | 0.75 |
| league points | 16.00 | 48.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 13.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 77.40 | 84.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 45.00 | 61.00 |
| rest days | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.32 | 0.16 |
| season ppg | 0.76 | 2.29 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 16.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.60 | 24.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.25 | 1.55 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.50 | 8.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 7.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 8.20 |
| squad age | — | 21.96 |
| state index | -0.46 | 1.54 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.79 | -0.25 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.38 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.40 | 0.40 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.40 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.20 |