← Eredivisie 2017-18 · Wed, Feb 7, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Kevin Blom, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NAC Breda win | 47% | 43% | 2.09 | fair |
| Heracles win | 28% | 30% | 3.44 | value: +4% |
| Draw | 25% | 27% | 3.85 | value: +5% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 4' | ⚽ | Rai Vloet · NAC Breda |
| 13' | ⚽ | Vincent Vermeij · Heracles |
| 18' | ⚽ | Thierry Ambrose · NAC Breda |
| 38' | 🟨 | Tim Breukers · Heracles |
| 40' | 🟨 | Arno Verschueren · NAC Breda |
| 45' | 🟨 | Jamiro Monteiro · Heracles |
| 50' | ⚽ | Manu García · NAC Breda |
| 74' | 🟨 | Tim Breukers · Heracles |
| 74' | 🟥 | Tim Breukers · Heracles |
| 78' | 🟨 | Mounir El Allouchi · NAC Breda |
| 78' | ⚽ | Mitchell Te Vrede · NAC Breda |
| 81' | ⚽ | Mounir El Allouchi · NAC Breda |
| 83' | ⚽ | Umar Sadiq · NAC Breda |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 25 | Shots | 11 |
| 10 | On target | 5 |
| 6 | Corners | 6 |
| 8 | Fouls | 9 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | NAC Breda | Heracles |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.36 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.36 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.68 | 0.58 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.80 |
| venue | Rat Verlegh Stadion |
| coach days | 860.00 | 1286.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -4.80 | 1.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 8.20 | 4.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 5.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.83 | 3.75 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.15 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.46 |
| elo | 1401.52 | 1485.28 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -2.04 | -12.56 |
| eye test v1 | -0.30 | 0.14 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.16 | -0.05 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 65.10 | 54.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.15 | 0.97 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.66 | 0.63 |
| league points | 16.00 | 24.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 10.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 5.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 79.40 | 74.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 49.00 | 52.00 |
| rest days | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.24 | 0.22 |
| season ppg | 0.76 | 1.14 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -7.60 | -3.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.60 | 13.40 |
| skill v1 | 0.23 | -0.11 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 5.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.80 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 4.80 |
| state index | -0.64 | -0.66 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.28 | -0.12 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.20 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.40 |