← Eredivisie 2017-18 · Tue, Feb 6, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Paulus van Boekel, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SC Heerenveen win | 37% | 28% | 2.59 | fair |
| PEC Zwolle win | 35% | 47% | 2.80 | value: +32% |
| Draw | 28% | 25% | 3.49 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 23' | ⚽ | Wouter Marinus · PEC Zwolle |
| 28' | ⚽ | Younes Namli · PEC Zwolle |
| 35' | 🟨 | Rick Dekker · PEC Zwolle |
| 53' | 🟨 | Dave Bulthuis · SC Heerenveen |
| 69' | ⚽ | Denzel Dumfries · SC Heerenveen |
| 73' | ⚽ | Mustafa Saymak · PEC Zwolle |
| 80' | ⚽ | Reza Ghoochannejhad · SC Heerenveen |
| 85' | 🟨 | Denzel Dumfries · SC Heerenveen |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 16 | Shots | 10 |
| 8 | On target | 5 |
| 2 | Corners | 2 |
| 7 | Fouls | 13 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | PEC Zwolle | SC Heerenveen |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.41 | 0.43 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.35 | 0.50 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.42 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.54 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.20 |
| venue | Mac3Park Stadion |
| coach days | 250.00 | 615.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | 2.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 4.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 6.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.76 | 1.69 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.08 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.45 | 0.50 |
| elo | 1541.84 | 1511.18 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -21.56 | 13.44 |
| eye test v1 | 0.43 | 0.48 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.30 | -0.22 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 67.70 | 66.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.99 | 0.97 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.73 | 0.58 |
| league points | 36.00 | 30.00 |
| league rank | 5.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.40 | 78.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 51.80 | 49.60 |
| rest days | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.29 | 0.15 |
| season ppg | 1.71 | 1.43 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.00 | 0.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.20 | 12.80 |
| skill v1 | 0.32 | 0.19 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.10 | 5.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 5.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 5.20 |
| state index | -0.50 | 0.08 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.09 | -0.15 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.00 |