← Eredivisie 2017-18 · Sun, Feb 4, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Christaan Bax, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sparta Rotterdam win | 48% | 66% | 2.02 | value: +33% ⚠ |
| Willem II Tilburg win | 26% | 15% | 3.67 | fair |
| Draw | 25% | 19% | 3.81 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 23' | ⚽ | Fred Friday · Sparta Rotterdam |
| 56' | 🟨 | Ben Rienstra · Willem II Tilburg |
| 63' | 🟨 | Paco Van Moorsel · Sparta Rotterdam |
| 84' | 🟨 | Ismail Azzaoui · Willem II Tilburg |
| 90' | 🟨 | Bartholomew Ogbeche · Willem II Tilburg |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 17 | Shots | 8 |
| 6 | On target | 3 |
| 3 | Corners | 5 |
| 15 | Fouls | 18 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Sparta Rotterdam | Willem II Tilburg |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.42 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.44 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.63 | 0.70 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 |
| venue | Het Kasteel |
| 2.00 |
| coach days | 34.00 | 613.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.04 | 0.17 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | -6.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 9.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 3.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.67 | 2.41 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.49 | 0.33 |
| elo | 1343.33 | 1438.38 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -35.64 | -15.41 |
| eye test v1 | 0.20 | -0.27 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.02 | 0.10 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 62.30 | 57.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -2.80 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 2.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.92 | 0.95 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.64 | 0.69 |
| league points | 11.00 | 17.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 9.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since win | 10.00 | 6.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 73.20 | 70.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 44.00 | 43.60 |
| rest days | 9.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.23 | 0.33 |
| season ppg | 0.55 | 0.85 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | -10.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.40 | 9.60 |
| skill v1 | -0.76 | -1.10 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 8.40 | 8.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.50 | 4.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 4.20 |
| state index | -1.76 | -0.89 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.87 | -0.47 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.22 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.20 | 1.00 |