← Eredivisie 2017-18 · Sun, Feb 4, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Ed Peter Janssen, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AFC Ajax win | 89% | 90% | 1.09 | fair |
| Draw | 7% | 7% | 13.46 | fair |
| NAC Breda win | 3% | 3% | 27.92 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 6' | ⚽ | Thierry Ambrose · NAC Breda |
| 21' | 🟨 | Arno Verschueren · NAC Breda |
| 25' | ⚽ | Donny van de Beek · AFC Ajax |
| 29' | 🟨 | Bart Meijers · NAC Breda |
| 39' | ⚽ | David Neres · AFC Ajax |
| 42' | 🟨 | Thierry Ambrose · NAC Breda |
| 56' | 🟨 | Matthijs de Ligt · AFC Ajax |
| 90' | 🟨 | Bart Meijers · NAC Breda |
| 90' | 🟥 | Bart Meijers · NAC Breda |
| 90' | ⚽ | Hakim Ziyech · AFC Ajax |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 32 | Shots | 8 |
| 8 | On target | 3 |
| 14 | Corners | 0 |
| 11 | Fouls | 8 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | AFC Ajax | NAC Breda |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.34 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.30 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.57 | 0.70 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.60 |
| venue | Johan Cruijff Arena |
| coach days | 34.00 | 857.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.06 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 4.20 | -2.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 6.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 7.00 | 4.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.49 | 1.29 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.08 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.74 | 0.45 |
| elo | 1813.35 | 1403.40 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 17.01 | -10.90 |
| eye test v1 | 1.83 | -0.23 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.35 | 0.05 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 54.50 | 68.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 13.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 2.21 | 1.20 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.90 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.76 | 0.66 |
| league points | 45.00 | 16.00 |
| league rank | 2.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 83.80 | 81.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 62.00 | 53.20 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 8.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.15 | 0.19 |
| season ppg | 2.25 | 0.80 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 14.00 | -3.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 22.40 | 12.80 |
| skill v1 | 1.57 | 0.72 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 8.40 | 3.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 8.00 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 8.00 | 3.40 |
| squad age | 21.97 | — |
| state index | 1.63 | -0.64 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.08 | 0.44 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.37 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 3.00 | 0.40 |