← Eredivisie 2017-18 · Sat, Feb 3, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Allard Lindhout, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Heracles win | 45% | 43% | 2.17 | fair |
| ADO Den Haag win | 30% | 28% | 3.26 | fair |
| Draw | 25% | 30% | 3.82 | value: +13% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 21' | ⚽ | Björn Johnsen · ADO Den Haag |
| 42' | 🟨 | Reuven Niemeijer · Heracles |
| 54' | ⚽ | Reuven Niemeijer · Heracles |
| 74' | 🟨 | Lex Immers · ADO Den Haag |
| 77' | 🟨 | Bas Kuipers · ADO Den Haag |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 13 | Shots | 14 |
| 3 | On target | 4 |
| 7 | Corners | 4 |
| 9 | Fouls | 16 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Heracles | ADO Den Haag |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.38 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.38 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.43 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.83 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.60 |
| venue | Polman Stadion |
| coach days | 1282.00 | 1463.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.14 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 3.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 5.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.72 | 2.57 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.15 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.45 | 0.48 |
| elo | 1486.75 | 1495.34 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -5.58 | 14.55 |
| eye test v1 | -0.15 | 0.33 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.20 | -0.07 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.20 | 60.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.97 | 1.62 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.64 | 0.65 |
| league points | 23.00 | 27.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since blank | 5.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 10.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 73.20 | 75.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 49.60 | 51.80 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.19 | 0.31 |
| season ppg | 1.15 | 1.35 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -4.20 | -1.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.80 | 11.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.37 | 0.00 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 7.40 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.50 | 4.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.00 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 5.40 |
| state index | -0.24 | -0.18 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.08 | 0.16 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.23 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 0.60 |