← Eredivisie 2017-18 · Sat, Feb 3, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Jeroen Manschot, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SC Heerenveen win | 52% | 56% | 1.86 | value: +4% |
| Draw | 25% | 25% | 3.86 | fair |
| FC Twente '65 win | 23% | 18% | 4.28 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 32' | 🟨 | Haris Vučkić · FC Twente '65 |
| 37' | 🟨 | Oussama Assaidi · FC Twente '65 |
| 55' | 🟨 | Thomas Lam · FC Twente '65 |
| 66' | ⚽ | Daniel Høegh · SC Heerenveen |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 14 | Shots | 10 |
| 6 | On target | 2 |
| 6 | Corners | 4 |
| 11 | Fouls | 11 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | SC Heerenveen | FC Twente '65 |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.41 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.45 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.30 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.64 | 0.58 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 |
| venue | Abe Lenstra Stadion |
| 2.20 |
| coach days | 612.00 | 125.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.07 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | -1.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 6.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 5.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.73 | 2.27 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.07 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.46 | 0.46 |
| elo | 1504.15 | 1457.92 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 13.16 | 9.61 |
| eye test v1 | 0.18 | -0.42 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.10 | -0.39 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 63.20 | 71.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.07 | 1.23 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.57 | 0.83 |
| league points | 27.00 | 16.00 |
| league rank | 9.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 9.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 75.80 | 75.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 45.80 | 45.80 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.15 | 0.21 |
| season ppg | 1.35 | 0.80 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.00 | -1.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.20 | 13.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.36 | -0.36 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.20 | 4.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.00 | 2.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 3.20 |
| state index | 0.06 | -0.29 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.59 | -0.46 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.00 |