← Eredivisie 2017-18 · Fri, Feb 2, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Reinold Wiedemeijer, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vitesse win | 61% | 59% | 1.59 | fair |
| Draw | 23% | 24% | 4.19 | fair |
| FC Groningen win | 16% | 17% | 6.16 | value: +4% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 6' | ⚽ | Matthew Miazga · Vitesse |
| 32' | ⚽ | Mason Mount · Vitesse |
| 71' | 🟨 | Yoell Van Nieff · FC Groningen |
| 77' | 🟨 | Deyovaisio Zeefuik · FC Groningen |
| 82' | 🟨 | Thulani Serero · Vitesse |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 12 | Shots | 10 |
| 7 | On target | 1 |
| 5 | Corners | 0 |
| 8 | Fouls | 13 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Vitesse | FC Groningen |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.36 | 0.52 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.39 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.67 | 0.69 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.20 |
| venue | GelreDome |
| coach days | 611.00 | 550.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.15 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | -1.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 6.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 5.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.33 | 2.50 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.51 | 0.47 |
| elo | 1585.86 | 1530.26 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 9.15 | -5.69 |
| eye test v1 | 0.44 | 0.60 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.25 | 0.83 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 62.40 | 62.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.63 | 1.52 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 1.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.82 | 0.73 |
| league points | 31.00 | 22.00 |
| league rank | 7.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 7.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 75.20 | 74.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 55.00 | 52.60 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.26 | 0.21 |
| season ppg | 1.55 | 1.10 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -1.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.00 | 14.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.20 | -0.00 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 6.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 8.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 6.00 |
| state index | 0.35 | -0.08 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.06 | -0.16 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.34 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.00 |