← Eredivisie 2017-18 · Sun, Jan 28, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Reinold Wiedemeijer, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AZ win | 54% | 54% | 1.79 | fair |
| Draw | 24% | 22% | 4.13 | fair |
| Willem II Tilburg win | 22% | 24% | 4.37 | value: +5% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 6' | ⚽ | Mats Seuntjens · AZ |
| 14' | ⚽ | Alireza Jahanbakhsh · AZ |
| 48' | 🟨 | Bartholomew Ogbeche · Willem II Tilburg |
| 61' | 🟨 | Pedro Chirivella · Willem II Tilburg |
| 73' | 🟨 | Jonas Svensson · AZ |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 7 | Shots | 19 |
| 3 | On target | 9 |
| 2 | Corners | 12 |
| 12 | Fouls | 14 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Willem II Tilburg | AZ |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.42 | 0.44 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.43 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.61 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.60 |
| venue | Koning Willem II Stadion |
| coach days | 606.00 | 1245.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.15 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.40 | 2.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 8.00 | 3.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 5.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.33 | 2.06 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.07 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.52 |
| elo | 1448.26 | 1631.78 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -8.48 | 12.52 |
| eye test v1 | -0.19 | 0.73 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.18 | -0.35 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 60.20 | 69.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.79 | 1.29 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 1.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.66 | 0.79 |
| league points | 17.00 | 39.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since blank | 12.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 10.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 5.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 71.80 | 76.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 46.00 | 53.40 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 9.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.33 | 0.23 |
| season ppg | 0.89 | 2.05 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -7.40 | 1.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.20 | 13.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.77 | 0.24 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 7.00 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.20 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.33 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 6.20 |
| state index | -0.58 | 0.77 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.41 | 0.06 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.20 |