← Eredivisie 2017-18 · Sun, Jan 28, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Martin Perez, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roda JC win | 42% | 39% | 2.29 | fair |
| SBV Excelsior win | 30% | 31% | 3.29 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 30% | 3.46 | value: +3% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 16' | ⚽ | Milan Massop · SBV Excelsior |
| 34' | 🟨 | Stanley Elbers · SBV Excelsior |
| 35' | 🟨 | Simon Gustafsson · Roda JC |
| 38' | 🟨 | Luigi Bruins · SBV Excelsior |
| 45' | ⚽ | Jorn Vancamp · Roda JC |
| 51' | ⚽ | Dani Schahin · Roda JC |
| 59' | 🟨 | Jeffrey Fortes · SBV Excelsior |
| 90' | 🟨 | Luigi Bruins · SBV Excelsior |
| 90' | 🟥 | Luigi Bruins · SBV Excelsior |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 15 | Shots | 9 |
| 2 | On target | 2 |
| 8 | Corners | 5 |
| 7 | Fouls | 18 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Roda JC | SBV Excelsior |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.31 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.57 | 0.53 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 3.20 |
| venue | Parkstad Limburg |
| coach days | 241.00 | 545.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.15 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | -2.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 6.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 4.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.60 | 2.77 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.08 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.43 |
| elo | 1377.76 | 1465.91 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -18.11 | 12.54 |
| eye test v1 | -0.35 | -0.57 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.09 | -0.17 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 68.80 | 65.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 2.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.82 | 0.97 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.64 | 0.66 |
| league points | 12.00 | 24.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 11.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 5.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 76.40 | 69.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 45.20 | 39.80 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.33 | 0.16 |
| season ppg | 0.63 | 1.26 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.20 | -3.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.00 | 10.60 |
| skill v1 | -0.34 | -1.46 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.40 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 3.20 |
| state index | -0.95 | -0.05 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.28 | -1.22 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.28 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.20 |