← Eredivisie 2017-18 · Wed, Jan 24, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Bernie Raymond Blom, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feyenoord Rotterdam win | 45% | 50% | 2.17 | value: +8% |
| FC Utrecht win | 28% | 30% | 3.43 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 20% | 3.60 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 15' | 🟨 | Tyrell Malacia · Feyenoord Rotterdam |
| 23' | ⚽ | Sam Larsson · Feyenoord Rotterdam |
| 41' | ⚽ | Gyrano Kerk · FC Utrecht |
| 45' | 🟨 | Jeremiah St. Juste · Feyenoord Rotterdam |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 12 | Shots | 11 |
| 5 | On target | 2 |
| 7 | Corners | 9 |
| 12 | Fouls | 12 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Utrecht | Feyenoord Rotterdam |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.47 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.58 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.53 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.64 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 |
| venue | Stadion Galgenwaard |
| 1.40 |
| coach days | 22.00 | 999.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.14 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | 0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 5.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 5.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.50 | 5.12 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.06 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.54 | 0.56 |
| elo | 1609.37 | 1711.48 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -23.38 | 0.53 |
| eye test v1 | 0.26 | 1.55 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.39 | -0.28 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 64.40 | 62.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 2.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.97 | 2.18 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 1.10 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.50 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.65 | 0.63 |
| league points | 29.00 | 32.00 |
| league rank | 6.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since blank | 9.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 74.00 | 80.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 47.60 | 57.20 |
| rest days | 5.00 | 3.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.26 | 0.31 |
| season ppg | 1.61 | 1.78 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 4.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.40 | 15.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.43 | 0.89 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.20 | 7.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 7.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 8.00 |
| state index | 0.14 | 0.98 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.78 | 0.43 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.60 |