← Eredivisie 2017-18 · Sun, Jan 21, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Danny Desmond Makkelie, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Willem II Tilburg win | 45% | 36% | 2.17 | fair |
| FC Groningen win | 29% | 38% | 3.31 | value: +27% |
| Draw | 26% | 26% | 3.73 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 14' | ⚽ | Ritsu Doan · FC Groningen |
| 30' | 🟨 | Darryl Lachman · Willem II Tilburg |
| 71' | ⚽ | Ismail Azzaoui · Willem II Tilburg |
| 90' | 🟨 | Freek Heerkens · Willem II Tilburg |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 15 | Shots | 13 |
| 8 | On target | 6 |
| 5 | Corners | 7 |
| 14 | Fouls | 11 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Willem II Tilburg | FC Groningen |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.41 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.30 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.68 | 0.69 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.20 |
| venue | Koning Willem II Stadion |
| 1.40 |
| coach days | 599.00 | 538.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.18 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.00 | -1.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.20 | 6.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 5.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.41 | 2.25 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.46 |
| elo | 1447.50 | 1534.08 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 6.53 | 14.76 |
| eye test v1 | -0.24 | -0.04 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.05 | 0.08 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 60.50 | 61.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.79 | 1.62 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 1.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.67 | 0.75 |
| league points | 16.00 | 20.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 11.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 9.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 71.60 | 75.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 43.80 | 53.00 |
| rest days | 28.00 | 28.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.35 | 0.20 |
| season ppg | 0.89 | 1.11 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -4.60 | -1.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.60 | 12.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.94 | 0.09 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 6.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.70 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 5.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 4.60 |
| state index | -0.34 | 0.28 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.01 | 0.09 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.80 |