← Eredivisie 2017-18 · Sun, Jan 21, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Paulus van Boekel, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sparta Rotterdam win | 45% | 43% | 2.16 | fair |
| SBV Excelsior win | 28% | 27% | 3.48 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 30% | 3.57 | value: +8% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 3' | ⚽ (og) | Milan Massop · Sparta Rotterdam |
| 5' | ⚽ | Ali Messaoud · SBV Excelsior |
| 18' | 🟨 | Jeff Chabot · Sparta Rotterdam |
| 30' | 🟨 | Khalid Karami · SBV Excelsior |
| 32' | 🟨 | Loris Brogno · Sparta Rotterdam |
| 42' | ⚽ (pen) | Loris Brogno · Sparta Rotterdam |
| 43' | 🟨 | Mike van Duinen · SBV Excelsior |
| 45' | ⚽ | Ali Messaoud · SBV Excelsior |
| 66' | 🟨 | Jordy de Wijs · SBV Excelsior |
| 80' | 🟨 | Soufyan Ahannach · Sparta Rotterdam |
| 85' | 🟨 | Sander Fischer · Sparta Rotterdam |
| 86' | ⚽ | Anouar Hadouir · SBV Excelsior |
| 88' | 🟨 | Sherel Constancio Floranus · Sparta Rotterdam |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 16 | Shots | 7 |
| 6 | On target | 4 |
| 10 | Corners | 4 |
| 14 | Fouls | 18 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Sparta Rotterdam | SBV Excelsior |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.44 | 0.21 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.27 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.65 | 0.52 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 |
| venue | Het Kasteel |
| 2.80 |
| coach days | 20.00 | 538.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.02 | 0.08 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.80 | -1.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.80 | 5.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 3.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.17 | 2.77 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.08 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.44 |
| elo | 1356.74 | 1457.07 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -28.53 | -11.88 |
| eye test v1 | 0.48 | -0.53 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.25 | -0.26 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 62.30 | 61.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -2.80 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.92 | 0.79 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.64 | 0.60 |
| league points | 11.00 | 21.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 7.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 8.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 72.00 | 71.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 45.00 | 42.40 |
| rest days | 5.00 | 29.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.25 | 0.19 |
| season ppg | 0.61 | 1.17 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -5.80 | -3.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.40 | 11.60 |
| skill v1 | -0.82 | -1.10 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 8.40 | 5.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.40 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.00 | 2.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 3.20 |
| state index | -1.48 | -0.31 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.93 | -1.08 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.33 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.29 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.20 |