← Eredivisie 2017-18 · Sat, Jan 20, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Jochem Kamphuis, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PEC Zwolle win | 60% | 58% | 1.63 | fair |
| Draw | 23% | 28% | 4.26 | value: +17% |
| NAC Breda win | 18% | 15% | 5.47 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 2' | ⚽ | Youness Mokhtar · PEC Zwolle |
| 78' | 🟨 | Philippe Sandler · PEC Zwolle |
| 90' | 🟨 | Paolo Fernandes · NAC Breda |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 17 | Shots | 8 |
| 3 | On target | 4 |
| 8 | Corners | 4 |
| 15 | Fouls | 9 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | PEC Zwolle | NAC Breda |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.42 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.48 | 0.26 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.45 | 0.25 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.45 | 0.65 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.00 |
| venue | Mac3Park Stadion |
| coach days |
| 233.00 |
| 842.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -2.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 6.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 3.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.16 | 1.83 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.07 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.53 | 0.47 |
| elo | 1551.86 | 1419.69 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -1.97 | 23.90 |
| eye test v1 | 0.68 | -0.02 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.06 | -0.34 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 66.20 | 64.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.06 | 1.20 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.79 | 0.69 |
| league points | 33.00 | 16.00 |
| league rank | 4.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 76.80 | 81.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 52.80 | 50.80 |
| rest days | 29.00 | 28.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.32 | 0.19 |
| season ppg | 1.83 | 0.89 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | -1.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.40 | 14.60 |
| skill v1 | 0.22 | 0.52 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.40 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.00 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 3.80 |
| state index | 0.13 | -0.05 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.10 | -0.16 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.32 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.29 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.60 |