← Eredivisie 2017-18 · Sat, Jan 20, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Reinold Wiedemeijer, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Twente '65 win | 42% | 47% | 2.33 | value: +9% |
| Roda JC win | 31% | 25% | 3.10 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 28% | 3.59 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 53' | ⚽ | Haris Vučkić · FC Twente '65 |
| 64' | 🟨 | Cristian Cuevas · FC Twente '65 |
| 86' | 🟨 | Marko Kvasina · FC Twente '65 |
| 88' | ⚽ | Dani Schahin · Roda JC |
| 90' | 🟨 | Donis Avdijaj · Roda JC |
| 90' | 🟨 | Thomas Lam · FC Twente '65 |
| 90' | 🟨 | Jelle van der Heyden · FC Twente '65 |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 21 | Shots | 11 |
| 8 | On target | 3 |
| 9 | Corners | 2 |
| 7 | Fouls | 16 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Roda JC | FC Twente '65 |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.34 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.60 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.40 |
| venue | Parkstad Limburg |
| coach days | 233.00 | 111.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | -1.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 7.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 5.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.93 | 2.20 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.48 |
| elo | 1377.03 | 1462.36 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -7.04 | 9.11 |
| eye test v1 | -0.87 | 0.13 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.18 | -0.15 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 68.30 | 70.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.88 | 1.27 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.62 | 0.80 |
| league points | 11.00 | 15.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 10.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 74.40 | 72.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 43.40 | 43.40 |
| rest days | 27.00 | 28.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.29 | 0.22 |
| season ppg | 0.61 | 0.83 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -7.60 | -1.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 8.00 | 13.60 |
| skill v1 | -0.68 | -0.84 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 5.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.80 | 4.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 4.40 |
| state index | -0.87 | -0.15 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.07 | -1.19 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.18 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.33 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.80 |