← Eredivisie 2017-18 · Fri, Jan 19, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Serdar Gozubuyuk, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Utrecht win | 38% | 36% | 2.59 | fair |
| AZ win | 36% | 37% | 2.71 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 28% | 3.65 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 13' | 🟨 | Yassin Ayoub · FC Utrecht |
| 42' | 🟨 | Wout Weghorst · AZ |
| 55' | ⚽ | Jonas Svensson · AZ |
| 73' | 🟨 | Alireza Jahanbakhsh · AZ |
| 74' | ⚽ | Cyriel Dessers · FC Utrecht |
| 78' | 🟨 | Stijn Wuytens · AZ |
| 90' | 🟨 | Gyrano Kerk · FC Utrecht |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 10 | Shots | 11 |
| 3 | On target | 6 |
| 5 | Corners | 4 |
| 18 | Fouls | 15 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Utrecht | AZ |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.38 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.36 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.64 | 0.59 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.20 |
| venue | Stadion Galgenwaard |
| coach days | 17.00 | 1236.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.15 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | 2.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 3.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 5.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.67 | 2.01 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.55 | 0.53 |
| elo | 1629.89 | 1649.83 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -14.39 | 20.41 |
| eye test v1 | 0.55 | 0.67 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.27 | -0.57 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 63.40 | 70.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 1.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.06 | 1.25 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 1.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.50 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.64 | 0.82 |
| league points | 28.00 | 38.00 |
| league rank | 6.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since blank | 8.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 75.00 | 78.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 48.40 | 55.00 |
| rest days | 27.00 | 27.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.23 | 0.24 |
| season ppg | 1.65 | 2.11 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 2.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.80 | 15.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.27 | 0.51 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.30 | 6.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 5.80 |
| squad age | 26.17 | 23.50 |
| state index | 0.37 | 1.05 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.75 | 0.05 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.34 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.28 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.20 |