← Eredivisie 2017-18 · Tue, Jan 16, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Danny Desmond Makkelie, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vitesse win | 49% | 54% | 2.00 | value: +7% |
| Draw | 26% | 21% | 3.73 | fair |
| Sparta Rotterdam win | 25% | 26% | 3.81 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 64' | ⚽ | Mason Mount · Vitesse |
| 74' | 🟨 | Jeff Chabot · Sparta Rotterdam |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 17 | Shots | 10 |
| 5 | On target | 5 |
| 5 | Corners | 6 |
| 11 | Fouls | 10 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Sparta Rotterdam | Vitesse |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.51 | 0.42 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.46 | 0.34 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.69 | 0.56 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.80 |
| coach days | 15.00 | 594.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.04 | 0.08 |
| venue | Het Kasteel |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | 5.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 8.00 | 3.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 8.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.60 | 3.71 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.16 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.60 |
| elo | 1362.67 | 1572.62 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -30.76 | -4.37 |
| eye test v1 | 0.18 | 0.72 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.50 | 0.53 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.80 | 56.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 0.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -3.00 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.92 | 0.82 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.61 | 0.75 |
| league points | 11.00 | 24.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 6.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 7.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 69.20 | 77.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 44.80 | 52.00 |
| rest days | 23.00 | 24.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| season ppg | 0.65 | 1.41 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -7.40 | 4.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.20 | 15.20 |
| skill v1 | -1.12 | 0.27 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 8.20 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.70 | 4.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.67 | 7.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 5.60 |
| state index | -1.49 | 0.02 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.72 | -0.50 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.32 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.36 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.33 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.40 |