← Eredivisie 2017-18 · Sun, Dec 24, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Ed Peter Janssen, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Groningen win | 56% | 50% | 1.75 | fair |
| Draw | 23% | 24% | 4.23 | fair |
| Sparta Rotterdam win | 21% | 26% | 4.58 | value: +17% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 42' | 🟨 | Ryan Sanusi · Sparta Rotterdam |
| 49' | ⚽ | Lars Veldwijk · FC Groningen |
| 74' | ⚽ | Tom Van Weert · FC Groningen |
| 86' | ⚽ (og) | Frederik Holst · FC Groningen |
| 90' | ⚽ | Ritsu Doan · FC Groningen |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 23 | Shots | 14 |
| 12 | On target | 5 |
| 3 | Corners | 9 |
| 10 | Fouls | 9 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Groningen | Sparta Rotterdam |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.45 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.39 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.66 | 0.68 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 |
| venue | Hitachi Capital Mobility Stadion |
| 1.40 |
| coach days | 510.00 | 6.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -3.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 8.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 5.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.18 | 3.98 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.20 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.36 |
| elo | 1525.63 | 1371.12 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -4.06 | -19.16 |
| eye test v1 | -0.77 | -0.37 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.24 | 0.24 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 63.70 | 60.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 1.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -2.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 3.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.43 | 0.88 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.72 | 0.61 |
| league points | 17.00 | 11.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 6.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 75.40 | 70.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 52.40 | 44.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.24 | 0.25 |
| season ppg | 1.00 | 0.69 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -4.20 | -6.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.00 | 9.60 |
| skill v1 | 0.04 | -1.01 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.80 | 4.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 5.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 4.00 |
| state index | -0.32 | -1.43 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.35 | -0.46 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.19 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.22 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.40 |