← Eredivisie 2017-18 · Sun, Dec 24, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Jochem Kamphuis, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feyenoord Rotterdam win | 87% | 88% | 1.12 | fair |
| Draw | 9% | 8% | 10.90 | fair |
| Roda JC win | 4% | 4% | 26.92 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 18 | Shots | 9 |
| 9 | On target | 4 |
| 6 | Corners | 5 |
| 9 | Fouls | 9 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Feyenoord Rotterdam | Roda JC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.42 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.50 | 0.25 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.48 | 0.35 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.63 | 0.54 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 2.00 |
| venue | De Kuip |
| coach days | 968.00 | 206.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.19 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 4.00 | -2.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 5.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 8.40 | 3.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 4.95 | 1.85 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.15 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.71 | 0.33 |
| elo | 1716.98 | 1380.50 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 8.54 | -6.13 |
| eye test v1 | 2.05 | -0.89 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.16 | -0.10 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.90 | 68.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 11.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 2.00 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 2.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 2.05 | 0.88 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.67 | 0.67 |
| league points | 29.00 | 11.00 |
| league rank | 5.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 8.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 83.00 | 73.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 62.80 | 43.40 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 8.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.29 | 0.31 |
| season ppg | 1.81 | 0.65 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 11.00 | -8.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 19.00 | 7.80 |
| skill v1 | 1.55 | -0.76 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 5.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 7.50 | 2.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 9.67 | 2.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 9.00 | 2.80 |
| state index | 1.11 | -1.03 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.58 | -0.06 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.18 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.18 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.60 |