← Eredivisie 2017-18 · Sun, Dec 24, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Jeroen Manschot, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AFC Ajax win | 86% | 88% | 1.14 | fair |
| Draw | 9% | 9% | 10.55 | fair |
| Willem II Tilburg win | 5% | 3% | 18.92 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 48' | 🟨 | Daniel Crowley · Willem II Tilburg |
| 53' | ⚽ | Fran Sol · Willem II Tilburg |
| 63' | ⚽ | Justin Kluivert · AFC Ajax |
| 70' | 🟨 | Fran Sol · Willem II Tilburg |
| 72' | ⚽ | Kasper Dolberg · AFC Ajax |
| 76' | 🟨 | Lasse Schöne · AFC Ajax |
| 81' | ⚽ | David Neres · AFC Ajax |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 28 | Shots | 10 |
| 11 | On target | 3 |
| 12 | Corners | 4 |
| 8 | Fouls | 10 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | AFC Ajax | Willem II Tilburg |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.41 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.41 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.38 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.62 | 0.70 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 |
| venue | Johan Cruijff Arena |
| 1.60 |
| coach days | 206.00 | 571.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.23 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 4.20 | -1.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 6.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 7.80 | 4.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.18 | 2.60 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.64 | 0.45 |
| elo | 1805.86 | 1450.01 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 25.24 | 9.83 |
| eye test v1 | 2.58 | 0.03 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.26 | -0.14 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.20 | 60.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 13.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 2.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.90 | 0.82 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 2.40 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.76 | 0.65 |
| league points | 38.00 | 16.00 |
| league rank | 2.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since blank | 17.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 85.60 | 72.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 64.20 | 47.40 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 8.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.14 | 0.32 |
| season ppg | 2.24 | 0.94 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 8.60 | -2.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 19.80 | 13.60 |
| skill v1 | 1.92 | -0.61 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 8.90 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 9.33 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 10.00 | 4.20 |
| squad age | 20.79 | — |
| state index | 1.52 | -0.33 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.20 | -0.63 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.37 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.28 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.00 |