← Eredivisie 2017-18 · Sat, Dec 23, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Reinold Wiedemeijer, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Utrecht win | 51% | 54% | 1.93 | value: +4% |
| Draw | 26% | 22% | 3.73 | fair |
| NAC Breda win | 23% | 24% | 4.20 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 26' | ⚽ | Pablo Marí · NAC Breda |
| 51' | 🟨 | Rico Strieder · FC Utrecht |
| 65' | 🟨 | Bart Meijers · NAC Breda |
| 71' | ⚽ | Thierry Ambrose · NAC Breda |
| 75' | ⚽ | Cyriel Dessers · FC Utrecht |
| 78' | 🟨 | Cyriel Dessers · FC Utrecht |
| 79' | 🟨 | Mark Birighitti · NAC Breda |
| 90' | 🟨 | Rico Strieder · FC Utrecht |
| 90' | 🟥 | Rico Strieder · FC Utrecht |
| 90' | ⚽ | Angeliño · NAC Breda |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 13 | Shots | 16 |
| 6 | On target | 6 |
| 4 | Corners | 4 |
| 2 | Fouls | 16 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | NAC Breda | FC Utrecht |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.14 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.37 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.57 | 0.59 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.60 |
| venue | Rat Verlegh Stadion |
| coach days |
| 814.00 |
| 906.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.60 | -1.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 6.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 5.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.11 | 3.71 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.07 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.46 | 0.56 |
| elo | 1397.72 | 1632.48 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -3.48 | 15.13 |
| eye test v1 | -0.27 | 0.65 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.70 | 0.08 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 60.30 | 65.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 11.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.03 | 1.06 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.50 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.67 | 0.65 |
| league points | 13.00 | 28.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 6.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 80.00 | 74.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 49.60 | 47.60 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.23 | 0.24 |
| season ppg | 0.76 | 1.75 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.00 | 3.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.60 | 15.40 |
| skill v1 | 0.33 | -0.35 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.90 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 1.67 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 5.60 |
| state index | -0.65 | 0.73 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.34 | -0.90 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.35 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.33 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.60 | 2.00 |