← Eredivisie 2017-18 · Sat, Dec 23, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Richard Martens, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Twente '65 win | 38% | 38% | 2.55 | fair |
| SBV Excelsior win | 34% | 36% | 2.91 | value: +4% |
| Draw | 28% | 27% | 3.46 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 26' | 🟨 | Cristian Cuevas · FC Twente '65 |
| 54' | 🟨 | Ryan Koolwijk · SBV Excelsior |
| 85' | 🟨 | Thomas Lam · FC Twente '65 |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 8 | Shots | 9 |
| 1 | On target | 2 |
| 4 | Corners | 5 |
| 10 | Fouls | 15 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | SBV Excelsior | FC Twente '65 |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.39 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.36 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.56 | 0.68 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.00 |
| venue | Stadion Woudestein |
| 2.20 |
| coach days | 509.00 | 83.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | -1.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 7.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 5.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.77 | 2.67 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.43 |
| elo | 1458.72 | 1460.70 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -12.63 | 0.33 |
| eye test v1 | 0.05 | 0.19 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.05 | -0.16 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.70 | 69.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.70 | 1.17 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.61 | — |
| league points | 20.00 | 14.00 |
| league rank | 11.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 10.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 71.20 | 71.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 43.20 | 41.40 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.19 | 0.22 |
| season ppg | 1.18 | 0.82 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -5.80 | -4.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.20 | 13.80 |
| skill v1 | -1.03 | -1.11 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 6.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.20 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.60 |
| state index | -0.47 | -0.48 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.22 | -1.42 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.36 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.33 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.60 |