← Eredivisie 2017-18 · Sat, Dec 23, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Paulus van Boekel, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AZ win | 56% | 60% | 1.74 | value: +4% |
| Draw | 23% | 21% | 4.20 | fair |
| SC Heerenveen win | 21% | 19% | 4.70 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 44' | 🟨 | Ricardo Van Rhijn · AZ |
| 48' | ⚽ | Pelle van Amersfoort · SC Heerenveen |
| 56' | 🟨 | Morten Thorsby · SC Heerenveen |
| 60' | 🟨 | Yuki Kobayashi · SC Heerenveen |
| 68' | 🟨 | Morten Thorsby · SC Heerenveen |
| 68' | 🟥 | Morten Thorsby · SC Heerenveen |
| 80' | ⚽ (og) | Denzel Dumfries · AZ |
| 84' | ⚽ | Fred Friday · AZ |
| 90' | ⚽ | Fred Friday · AZ |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 12 | Shots | 14 |
| 6 | On target | 4 |
| 4 | Corners | 5 |
| 7 | Fouls | 16 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | AZ | SC Heerenveen |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.38 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.38 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.59 | 0.61 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.40 |
| venue | AFAS Stadion |
| coach days | 1209.00 | 570.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.08 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 3.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 3.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 6.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.00 | 2.50 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.03 | 0.16 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.59 |
| elo | 1622.75 | 1503.57 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 19.77 | -14.46 |
| eye test v1 | 0.82 | 0.63 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.13 | 0.31 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 73.10 | 60.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.60 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.29 | 1.14 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.60 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.82 | 0.61 |
| league points | 35.00 | 23.00 |
| league rank | 3.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since blank | 10.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.00 | 77.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 53.40 | 49.00 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.26 | 0.18 |
| season ppg | 2.06 | 1.35 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 4.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 17.60 | 15.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.38 | -0.00 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 6.30 | 4.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.67 | 5.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 5.60 |
| state index | 0.82 | -0.20 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.42 | -0.54 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.34 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.31 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.00 |