← Eredivisie 2017-18 · Fri, Dec 22, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Bernie Raymond Blom, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ADO Den Haag win | 39% | 30% | 2.49 | fair |
| PEC Zwolle win | 33% | 41% | 2.92 | value: +19% |
| Draw | 27% | 30% | 3.56 | value: +6% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 15' | 🟨 | Bram Van Polen · PEC Zwolle |
| 23' | ⚽ | Erik Falkenburg · ADO Den Haag |
| 44' | ⚽ | Björn Johnsen · ADO Den Haag |
| 45' | 🟨 | Rick Dekker · PEC Zwolle |
| 52' | ⚽ | Erik Falkenburg · ADO Den Haag |
| 62' | ⚽ | Björn Johnsen · ADO Den Haag |
| 82' | 🟨 | Stefan Nijland · PEC Zwolle |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 14 | Shots | 9 |
| 10 | On target | 4 |
| 5 | Corners | 1 |
| 7 | Fouls | 10 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | ADO Den Haag | PEC Zwolle |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.43 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.47 | 0.51 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.45 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.71 | 0.49 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 1.60 |
| venue | Cars Jeans Stadion |
| coach days | 1420.00 | 204.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.14 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 4.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 4.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.64 | 1.94 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.47 | 0.54 |
| elo | 1484.15 | 1572.12 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -13.83 | 29.29 |
| eye test v1 | 0.68 | 0.69 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.66 | 0.08 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.10 | 67.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 11.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.51 | 1.06 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.69 | 0.81 |
| league points | 23.00 | 33.00 |
| league rank | 8.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 8.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 73.40 | 77.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 51.00 | 53.40 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.25 | 0.32 |
| season ppg | 1.35 | 1.94 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | 2.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.20 | 13.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.26 | 0.28 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.30 | 6.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.67 | 7.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 6.00 |
| state index | -0.55 | 0.59 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.57 | 0.16 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.60 |