← Eredivisie 2017-18 · Sun, Dec 17, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Siemen Mulder, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Utrecht win | 75% | 68% | 1.30 | fair |
| Draw | 15% | 19% | 6.33 | value: +23% |
| Heracles win | 9% | 12% | 10.43 | value: +29% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 29' | 🟨 | Roland Baas · Heracles |
| 34' | ⚽ | Yassin Ayoub · FC Utrecht |
| 75' | 🟨 | Urby Emanuelson · FC Utrecht |
| 90' | ⚽ | Paul Gladon · Heracles |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 16 | Shots | 8 |
| 4 | On target | 3 |
| 2 | Corners | 2 |
| 18 | Fouls | 16 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Utrecht | Heracles |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.41 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.45 | 0.39 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.64 | 0.55 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.60 |
| venue | Stadion Galgenwaard |
| coach days | 900.00 | 1234.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.00 | -2.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 8.00 | 8.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 5.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.56 | 3.60 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.48 | 0.36 |
| elo | 1637.67 | 1497.84 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 36.46 | -32.44 |
| eye test v1 | 0.68 | 0.31 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.31 | -0.44 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 62.30 | 57.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 13.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | -1.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 3.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.06 | 1.07 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.64 | 0.67 |
| league points | 27.00 | 21.00 |
| league rank | 5.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 6.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 73.00 | 75.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 43.60 | 51.60 |
| rest days | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.25 | 0.23 |
| season ppg | 1.80 | 1.31 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -9.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.80 | 12.60 |
| skill v1 | -0.81 | 0.01 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 8.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.60 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.67 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 5.40 |
| state index | 0.83 | -0.86 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.12 | 0.03 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.00 |