← Eredivisie 2017-18 · Sun, Dec 17, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Serdar Gozubuyuk, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feyenoord Rotterdam win | 62% | 62% | 1.56 | fair |
| Draw | 22% | 17% | 4.40 | fair |
| Sparta Rotterdam win | 15% | 21% | 6.31 | value: +31% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 4 |
| 5 | Shots | 21 |
| 3 | On target | 12 |
| 3 | Corners | 9 |
| 14 | Fouls | 9 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Sparta Rotterdam | Feyenoord Rotterdam |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.42 | 0.50 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.45 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.65 | 0.64 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.20 |
| venue | Het Kasteel |
| 0.40 |
| coach days | 1081.00 | 961.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.08 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.00 | 1.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 8.40 | 6.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 7.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.89 | 5.25 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.15 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.67 |
| elo | 1378.96 | 1709.13 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -9.90 | -4.00 |
| eye test v1 | -0.19 | 1.65 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.03 | 0.15 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 61.40 | 58.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 2.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.88 | 1.16 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.65 | 0.62 |
| league points | 11.00 | 26.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 5.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 71.20 | 81.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 47.80 | 60.80 |
| rest days | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.25 | 0.33 |
| season ppg | 0.73 | 1.73 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.60 | 8.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.20 | 18.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.71 | 1.25 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 2.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.90 | 6.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.33 | 8.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 8.00 |
| state index | -0.92 | 0.75 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.56 | 0.42 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.30 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.60 |