← Eredivisie 2017-18 · Sun, Dec 17, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Martin Van den Kerkhof, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Groningen win | 40% | 28% | 2.46 | fair |
| SBV Excelsior win | 33% | 40% | 2.97 | value: +19% |
| Draw | 27% | 32% | 3.56 | value: +15% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 8' | ⚽ | Milan Massop · SBV Excelsior |
| 72' | 🟨 | Ludovit Reis · FC Groningen |
| 83' | ⚽ | Stanley Elbers · SBV Excelsior |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 16 | Shots | 9 |
| 5 | On target | 2 |
| 9 | Corners | 8 |
| 5 | Fouls | 14 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | SBV Excelsior | FC Groningen |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.42 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.25 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.27 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.51 | 0.65 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 2.60 |
| venue | Stadion Woudestein |
| coach days | 503.00 | 503.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.22 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.80 | -0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 4.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.22 | 1.90 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.42 |
| elo | 1441.99 | 1542.37 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -36.61 | 27.75 |
| eye test v1 | 0.04 | -0.45 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.24 | -0.32 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 60.10 | 63.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 0.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.79 | 1.34 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 1.10 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.60 | 0.76 |
| league points | 17.00 | 17.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 9.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 5.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 75.60 | 74.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 48.60 | 49.60 |
| rest days | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.14 | 0.24 |
| season ppg | 1.06 | 1.06 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -8.00 | -4.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.00 | 10.60 |
| skill v1 | -0.20 | -0.21 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 6.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.40 | 3.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 2.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 3.40 |
| state index | -1.13 | 0.06 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.35 | -0.18 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.80 |