← Eredivisie 2017-18 · Sun, Dec 17, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Danny Desmond Makkelie, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AFC Ajax win | 46% | 55% | 2.09 | value: +15% |
| AZ win | 29% | 23% | 3.32 | fair |
| Draw | 24% | 22% | 3.99 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 25' | 🟨 | Deyovaisio Zeefuik · AFC Ajax |
| 25' | ⚽ (pen) | Alireza Jahanbakhsh · AZ |
| 26' | 🟨 | Jonas Svensson · AZ |
| 43' | ⚽ | Klaas-Jan Huntelaar · AFC Ajax |
| 50' | 🟨 | Pantelis Hatzidiakos · AZ |
| 51' | ⚽ (pen) | Lasse Schöne · AFC Ajax |
| 86' | 🟨 | Jonas Svensson · AZ |
| 86' | 🟥 | Jonas Svensson · AZ |
| 88' | 🟨 | Frenkie de Jong · AFC Ajax |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 11 | Shots | 20 |
| 4 | On target | 9 |
| 7 | Corners | 4 |
| 18 | Fouls | 15 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | AZ | AFC Ajax |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.37 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.62 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.40 |
| venue | AFAS Stadion |
| coach days | 1203.00 | 199.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.21 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 6.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 8.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.96 | 2.18 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.01 | 0.07 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.63 | 0.65 |
| elo | 1629.71 | 1798.90 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 32.80 | 25.26 |
| eye test v1 | 0.88 | 2.21 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.12 | -0.22 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 70.40 | 54.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 13.00 | 13.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 3.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 4.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.41 | 1.81 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.60 | 2.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.50 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.74 | 0.74 |
| league points | 35.00 | 35.00 |
| league rank | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since blank | 9.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 79.80 | 86.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 56.80 | 66.80 |
| rest days | 5.00 | 3.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.26 | 0.15 |
| season ppg | 2.19 | 2.19 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 8.00 | 10.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 18.40 | 21.80 |
| skill v1 | 0.81 | 2.14 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 5.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 6.10 | 8.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.33 | 9.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 9.00 |
| squad age | — | 21.23 |
| state index | 1.13 | 1.72 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.11 | 0.53 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.34 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.36 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.35 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.60 |