← Eredivisie 2017-18 · Sat, Dec 16, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Reinold Wiedemeijer, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PEC Zwolle win | 38% | 38% | 2.55 | fair |
| Willem II Tilburg win | 34% | 33% | 2.85 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 29% | 3.56 | value: +3% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 10' | ⚽ | Fran Sol · Willem II Tilburg |
| 20' | 🟨 | Dirk Marcellis · PEC Zwolle |
| 30' | 🟨 | Konstantinos Tsimikas · Willem II Tilburg |
| 36' | ⚽ | Ben Rienstra · Willem II Tilburg |
| 39' | 🟨 | Mattijs Branderhorst · Willem II Tilburg |
| 40' | ⚽ (pen) | Erik Bakker · PEC Zwolle |
| 55' | 🟨 | Ismail Azzaoui · Willem II Tilburg |
| 59' | ⚽ | Mustafa Saymak · PEC Zwolle |
| 85' | ⚽ | Mustafa Saymak · PEC Zwolle |
| 88' | 🟨 | Youness Mokhtar · PEC Zwolle |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 12 | Shots | 15 |
| 5 | On target | 8 |
| 6 | Corners | 4 |
| 13 | Fouls | 10 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Willem II Tilburg | PEC Zwolle |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.38 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.40 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.62 | 0.50 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 |
| venue | Koning Willem II Stadion |
| 1.40 |
| coach days | 563.00 | 198.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | 0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 4.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.75 | 1.97 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.55 |
| elo | 1458.73 | 1563.40 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 15.41 | 17.03 |
| eye test v1 | -0.07 | 0.17 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.04 | -0.10 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.60 | 65.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.03 | 1.06 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.66 | 0.83 |
| league points | 16.00 | 30.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since blank | 9.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 7.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 72.00 | 76.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 48.60 | 53.40 |
| rest days | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.35 | 0.25 |
| season ppg | 1.00 | 1.88 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 3.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.60 | 14.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.57 | 0.24 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.70 | 5.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 5.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.80 |
| state index | -0.13 | 0.37 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.53 | 0.32 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.22 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.20 |