← Eredivisie 2017-18 · Sat, Dec 16, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Jeroen Manschot, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vitesse win | 38% | 43% | 2.57 | value: +11% |
| FC Twente '65 win | 35% | 30% | 2.82 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 26% | 3.55 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 14' | ⚽ | Fredrik Jensen · FC Twente '65 |
| 28' | ⚽ | Mason Mount · Vitesse |
| 52' | 🟨 | Julian Lelieveld · Vitesse |
| 57' | 🟨 | Mason Mount · Vitesse |
| 83' | 🟨 | Luc Castaignos · Vitesse |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 6 | Shots | 11 |
| 3 | On target | 5 |
| 4 | Corners | 13 |
| 11 | Fouls | 14 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Twente '65 | Vitesse |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.28 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.48 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 0.60 |
| venue | De Grolsch Veste |
| coach days | 76.00 | 563.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.06 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 5.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 2.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 7.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.67 | 2.95 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.18 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.46 | 0.64 |
| elo | 1459.06 | 1576.72 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -22.46 | 15.42 |
| eye test v1 | 0.07 | 0.62 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.32 | 0.48 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 70.50 | 58.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.16 | 1.26 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | — | 0.76 |
| league points | 13.00 | 23.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 7.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 74.40 | 78.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 44.60 | 48.80 |
| rest days | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.24 | 0.26 |
| season ppg | 0.81 | 1.53 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.20 | 7.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.60 | 16.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.60 | 0.15 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 7.00 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.80 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.67 | 6.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 5.20 |
| state index | -0.66 | 0.28 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.15 | -0.87 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.43 | 0.40 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.36 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.00 |