← Eredivisie 2017-18 · Sat, Dec 16, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Allard Lindhout, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SC Heerenveen win | 64% | 62% | 1.52 | fair |
| Draw | 21% | 25% | 4.63 | value: +16% |
| NAC Breda win | 15% | 13% | 6.65 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 55' | ⚽ | Pelle van Amersfoort · SC Heerenveen |
| 90' | 🟨 | Doke Schmidt · SC Heerenveen |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 17 | Shots | 9 |
| 5 | On target | 2 |
| 10 | Corners | 2 |
| 23 | Fouls | 14 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | SC Heerenveen | NAC Breda |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.35 | 0.19 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.25 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.64 | 0.53 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.20 |
| coach days | 563.00 | 807.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.07 |
| venue | Abe Lenstra Stadion |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.60 | -2.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 6.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 4.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.00 | 2.50 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.56 | 0.45 |
| elo | 1497.74 | 1403.55 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 0.85 | -4.63 |
| eye test v1 | 0.74 | 0.16 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.36 | -0.20 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.80 | 62.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -1.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.20 | 1.03 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.59 | 0.67 |
| league points | 20.00 | 13.00 |
| league rank | 10.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 76.60 | 78.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 49.60 | 44.40 |
| rest days | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.19 | 0.23 |
| season ppg | 1.25 | 0.81 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 2.80 | -3.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.80 | 15.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.02 | -0.24 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 6.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.40 | 4.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.67 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 4.00 |
| state index | -0.32 | -0.85 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.34 | -1.17 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.33 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.34 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.36 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.60 |